Thursday 4/17/08- Update

Small gains add up!

Today we got a chance to put on a trade and fortunately we were able to get some pips out of it. We had a crossover at 1 am but the MACD was already positive and that canceled out our signal. So we let it go. But at 3:30 another crossover happened and this time everything was lined up correctly so we jumped in.

I got executed at 1.9731 and immediately set my stop at 1.9690. I was 19 pips away from the next 50 level and and I had to make a decision here. Do I set my limit at that level or do I go for the amount I am risking. Because of the recent ranges and unpredictability of the CABLE, I decided to go for the 50 level for a 19 pip gain. I set the limit at 1.9750 and let it go, but decided to watch it and see if I would let it ride after that. At 4:45 am the target was hit and because of the recent string of losses I decided to close out the trade. I got 19 pips out of it on 3 lots for a total of 58 pips. At least it canceled out yesterdays loss.

Looking back and seeing how it kept running up I feel like I didn't get as much as I could have but...as the saying goes...Hindsight is always 20/20.

So in the end it was a good day. Anytime we can be in and out of a trade inn 2 hours for 20 pips, it's a good day.

Here are the charts for the day. Take a look.

I'll talk to you soon.

Wednesday 4/16/08 Update

In the chart of the beholder!

OK, so today by looking at the chart without having been in front of it all morning, one would say that there were no valid signals, and that it should have been another day on he sidelines. That's what would happen if you back tested this strategy. No trade because the chart doesn't show a crossover. HOWEVER...the reality of things is different.

At the 10 am chart, the moving averages crossed over to the long side. Barely...but it was indeed a cross. At he open of the 10:15 bar I jumped in because all the other confirmation was there. I got executed at 1.9761. Immediately the price moved lower and by doing so eliminated the cross from the previous bar...making it look like there was non signal to begin with.

Needless to say, within the 10 minutes I had been stopped out for a loss of 17 pips. -51 for the day. But that doesn't bother me. If you lose, you lose and that's the name of this game. You move on.

The bigger lesson to get here. Back testing, and applying strategies to charts that are already made can be deceptive. A great deal of bundled strategies that post there results, are based on just that. So don't fall for it. Signals show up and disappear. If you are demo trading, be honest with yourself above all. If you see a signal and took it...admit it. If you were sleeping and woke up and saw a signal..don't say well I would have been in so let me include that in my results. Boosting your pride is a sure way to failure.

Anyway..I am no guru...I just know people who are trading this same strategy and tell me they didn't see the trade. They also happen to be in all the great trades and when they miss one..it is a bad one..so..just don't do it to yourself if you are really serious about finding out if a strategy works for you.

With that I leave you and I will post the chart. Look at the 10 am bar..no crossover...but..trust me..it was there when the 10:15 bar came.

I will talk to you soon.

Tuesday 4/15/08 Update

Another day on the sidelines!

Unfortunately today we were forced to sit on the sidelines and watch the CABLE tank throughout the night without getting a signal to jump in. The 4 hr. trend remained up until 4 am and after it crossed over to the downside, we never got a signal to participate. In any event there were news releases hitting at 4:30 and 8:30 am so any signal we would have gotten would have been short lived.

Tomorrow will be another day, but we must be cautious since there are a lot of news events happening.

4:30am EST- UK Average Earnings Index
8:30am EST- US Core CPI.

So here are the charts of what the day looked like.

I will talk to you soon.

Monday 4/14/08 Update

Not good...but should have been worse!



A lot of things happened today. 2 signals and a trend change. One trade and one trade that I tried to trigger but was unable to. Here's how it went:



As you can see by the 4 hr chart, we were in a downtrend until 8 am. So before that I was only looking for short trades. At 1:45 I had a valid signal. At 2 am, when the new bar opened I pressed the sell button for 3 lots. I got a message on my screen saying that weekend closure was still in effect! I was so troubled by this. I tried again and got the same message. I contacted the FCM and they told me that they don't open til 3 am Monday morning (London open)! I was livid. In any case by the time I finished discussing with the FCM, I realized that I would have been stopped out within 15 min for a 27 pip loss. In any case the fact that I could not place the trade bothered me. But that feeling was subsided to the relief of not losing 27 pips per lot on 3 lots.So that error saved me 81 pips.



At 3 am we had another crossover. This time I was able to jump in. I wish I would have had computer problems there..because that trade went against me as soon as got in. I got executed at 1.9702. I set my stop at 1.9736 which was the most recent swing high and since my next 00 level was only 2 pips away I decided to put my target at the same amount I was risking which was 34 pips away. It didn't really matter because it just ran up to our stop and I took my 34 pip loss. Times 3 lots...-102 pips.



Not the best way to start the week but I guess it is better than the alternative of losing two trades.



On a positive note, I will let you know that my alerts are set up and working properly so on both these trade signals I was sleeping and the alert got me up to the computer. All this means is I don't have to be awake from 12 am to 4 pm in order to not miss a trade. I can actually get some rest during the week and wait for the alerts to let me know when I need to be in front of the computer. I will see if this works out better and let you know.



Tomorrow is another day.



So, here are the charts for the day. Take a look.