Friday 4/4/08 Daily Update

Disappointment is an understatement!!

Today was one of those days. More on an emotional level than the profit loss issue. I was tired but hoping I would catch a signal that would levy some of the weeks loss. Instead, I missed an opportunity at 1am that would have netted me 20-25 pips! That alone busted my morale. On top of that another signal came at 8 am and I could not enter because news was about to come out. That would have net almost 50 pips. So I go into the weekend with a loss, and knowing that I missed out on some very precious pips. Tired, and disappointed. I can't wait for Monday so I can shake the streak.

Well, here are the charts for the day. Take a look. I hope someone else caught these signals and enjoyed the wonderful feeling of closing out the week with a positive day!

Talk to you soon!

Thursday 4/3/08- Update

Better than a kick in the head!

Once again we had more than one trade in the day. This time the trends on the 4 hour chart was up and so we were only looking for long trades. At 1 am we had our first signal. It actually looked promising. You know that gut feeling you get. That hoping you get the signal because you are SURE that the trade is going to go your way. That which I was talking about yesterday that you just know feels right. So I got the signal smiled and pulled the trigger! BAM! 21 pip loss. Suck on that. That goodness we don't trade on emotion! Anyway, yeah, we got stopped out, and I was feeling that I never wanted to trade again. Just kidding, This is the business we chose.

Again at 7 am another signal popped it's head. I didn't look pretty. Stochastics were almost overbought, rsi was barely over 50 and MACD had already turned positive. I felt like I was getting in on the tail end of the rise. But, once again, I don't think, I do. Like a trained monkey. If A=B and B=C then A=do the trade...period. So I got in and waited to get stopped out. BAM!!! 24 pip gain! What?! Yeah, my feelings about where things are going are no good. Thank god for the strategy.

So anyway, we busted out 3 pips! We did 3 lots both times and so all in all it was 9 pips! Like I said in the heading, it's not stellar by any means, but it is better than a kick in the head!

One more thing, in the comparison with the pip surfer, we actually got in the same trades and well, he got 6 pips. We are getting closer to becoming ONE...hahaha..

Here are today's charts..take a look!

Talk to you later.

Wednesday 4/2/08

Ouch!


Today was not only a losing day but it was a test of discipline. There was One signal that happened today at 1:15am. It looked so ugly. I didn't want to pull the trigger on it because if you look at it well, you will notice that I had to go short right above the support line of 1.9851. Not only that but it had been tested 3 times before without breaking it and on top of that by the time I got the signal we were coming off a 100 pip decline with no retracement. It was just against everything I felt.

But discipline is discipline, and a strategy is a law of probabilities and in no means infallible. The hardest thing to do is follow it without thinking and letting it take it's course. You cannot pick and choose which trades you are going to do and which you are going to stay away from. At that point you might as well just start guessing without a strategy.

So today was one of those days where I pulled the trigger against my thought and well, this time, I would have benefited from listening to my instinct. But as we have seen previously, my gut has been wrong more often than not.

At 1:15 am the signals were there for the short trade and so we got executed at 1.9855. The previous swing high was 1.9885 for 30 pips and so that let me go for 3 lots. The next 50 level was only 5 pips away so I decided to put my limit at the same amount I as risking. 30 pips. So my target price was 1.98225.

I let it ride and on the very next bar I was stopped out for a 30 pip loss. I wasn't surprised but I was upset. I questioned my decision to enter. Now that I have blown off the steam (yeah..like poker you can go on tilt from trading..so check emotions at the door) I can say it was the right thing to do.

There were other crossover during the day. The signals were there except for the MACD was already negative and so that canceled out the the trade. So I did nothing more today.

One trade. 20 minutes. 30 pip loss. times 3 lots = $900. That's the way the cookie crumbles. Fortunately we are early in the month and I am confident we will make it up.

So here are the charts for the day. Tomorrow is another day.





Talk to you soon.

Tuesday 4/1/08

If you snooze you lose!

Today started late for me. I actually slept till 5 am and so I missed the 1 am trade entry. It was a good trade to have been in but I couldn't stay up for it. As you can see on the charts there was another crossover at 9:15 am. Normally since we were so close to news at 10 am i would have stayed away, but the volatility in the the pair was pretty good so I thought I may get a few pips before I had to exit. My gut told me not to exit but rules are rules, and the minute you break them and get lucky you justify doing it again, next thing you know you have no system. Anyway, I xited the trade 10 min before 10 and got a pips profit....hahahahaha...1 PIP!!!

Oh well, tomorrow is another day! I just woke up and it's 10:30 pm so I should be able to stay up!

Here are the charts of what should have happened.

Talk to you soon.

Monday 3/31/08 Update

Busy Day!!

Today was extremely busy giving us the opportunity to jump into 3 trades. Not only did we get into three trades, but also had to use cautious money management. On all three trades I had to use different lot amount because the stops were very far out on some and not so far on the others. In the end, we net +7 pips! That's it? Yep, I could have been worse I guess. I could have lost 7 pips!

So here's how things happened:

At 12:00 am we had all the signals for a short trade, and since we were in a downtrend on the 4 hr chart, we pulled the trigger. We executed at 1.9845. Before the trade I was aware of where the swing high was so I knew more or less how many lots I would sell (so as to not risk more than 2%). I ended up selling 3 lots, and set my stop at 1.9870. I could have sold 4 with small risk like that but I didn't. OK, so that was the first part of the trade. The next was putting the limit. This is where I let fear take over and I made the mistake of setting my limit at 1.9920 for 25 pips (it wasn't random, it was the same amount I was risking) instead of setting it up at the next 00 level which is what the strategy calls for. In any case, my target was hit and I made 25 pips per lot. 3 lots= 75 pips.

So I'm feeling good and come 7 am there is another crossover with all the corresponding conformation. Again I was going short...but this time I knew the swing high was a little further away..it was 50 pips away! So I could only sell 2 lots. That's what I did at 1.9857. I set my limit at 1.9807. Why? Because the next 50 level was only 7 pips away so I decided to go for the same amount I was risking. The trade got within 8 pips of my limit but turned around and I got stopped out for a 50 pips loss at 10 am. 2 lots= -100 pips.

So now I'm not feeling so good. On one I was too conservative with my lots and limits and so now I find myself negative 25 pips! Had I sold 4 in the first trade I would have been even. Had I set my target at the 00 level I would have been up...instead I am losing. But thanks to proper money management on the second trade where I only sold 2, I was only down 25 pips.

OK, now at 11:15 am I get a third signal. This time the swing high was a whopping 90 pips away! That limited my selling to one lot. I was executed once again at 1.9857. Second chance...I guess..... with the same price. I had originally thought to put the limit at 1.9807 again but decided that I would put it at the support level 1.9817. I would however have to monitor it because it was late and I knew I had to close the trade before 4 pm, as per the rules.

It was 3:11pm and the pair had traveled to 1.9827 where I was up 30 pips on that trade and 5 pips for the day. I decided to not risk a turnaround since I would have to close out the position soon. I closed it manually at 1.9825 for 32 pips. 1 lot=32 pips gain.

In recap:

Up 25 pips x 3 lots +75 pips

Down 50 pips x 2 lots -100 pips

Up 32 pips x 1 lot +32 pips

Total +7 pips

The funny thing is that had I done it all three times with one lot the result would have been the same!!

Now as far as my comparison to Pip Surfer:

We both did the same three trades. he got +43 pips on the first trade, lost 47 pips on the second trade and made 12 pips on the third. He made out with +6 pips. I made out with +7 pips. We saw the same 3 trades and executed them in completely different ways. Yet we ended up with basically the same result. That's a first!!

In any case, this was an awesome day for getting everything in order. Calculating stops...measuring risk and determining proper amount of lots, discipline in the trade and strategy, and of course proper interpretation of the signals. I would say all in all, I deserve a b+ for today. Made some weak decisions in my targets but also some very strong ones in money management.

So here are the charts for today in case you want to see all the actions of today

Talk to you soon.